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Understanding Willingness to Migrate Illegally: Evidence from a Lab in the Field Experiment

Tijan L Bah

Nova School of Business and Economics – Universidade Nova de Lisboa, NOVAFRICA, University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, and DIAL

Catia Batista

Nova School of Business and Economics – Universidade Nova de Lisboa, CReAM, IZA and NOVAFRICA

ISSN 2183-0843
Working Paper No 1803
November 2018
Revised in September 2019
Revised in June 2020

Abstract

Irregular migration to Europe by sea, though risky, remains one of the most popular migration options for many sub-Saharan Africans. This study examines the determinants of irregular migration from West Africa to Europe. We implemented an incentivized lab-in-the-field experiment in rural Gambia, the country with the region’s highest rate of irregular migration to Europe. Male youths aged 15 to 25 were given hypothetical scenarios regarding the probability of dying en route to Europe and of gaining legal residence status after successful arrival. According to the data we collected, potential migrants overestimate both the risk of dying en route to Europe and the probability of obtaining legal residency status. In this context, our experimental results show that providing potential migrants with official numbers on the probability of getting a legal residence permit decreases their likelihood of migration by 2.88 percentage points (pp), while information on the death risk of migrating increases their likelihood of migration by 2.29 pp—although the official numbers should be regarded as a lower bound to actual mortality. Follow-up data collected one year after the experiment show that the migration decisions reported in the lab experiment correlate well with actual migration decisions and intentions. Overall, our study indicates that the migration decisions of potential migrants are likely to respond to relevant information.

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