Na quarta-feira, 12 de Setembro, pelas 14h30, o Centro NOVAFRICA recebe Frederic Docquier, da Universidade Católica de Louvain para apresentar o seu trabalho.
Frederic Docquier (Universidade Católica de Louvain)
This paper investigates the long-term effects of climate change on labor migration at various spatial scales (local, interregional and international). We build a two-sector, two-class, intertemporal model of the world economy. For each country, we endogenize the effect of rising temperature and sea levels on population and productivity growth, education decisions, income inequality, extreme poverty and mobility decisions. Climate change creates conditions that are conducive to increasing urbanization and international migration from developing to rich countries. In our median scenario (+2.09◦C, +1.1m), we predict that climate change induces voluntary and forcibly displacements of about 120 million adult workers in the course of the 21st century. Nevertheless, under current migration laws and policies, most of these workers will move short distances, and only 19% of them will opt for long-haul migration to OECD destinations. Climate change has limited effects on international emigration and immigration rates, even when considering more extreme scenarios. Larger amounts of internal and international migrations can be obtained when adding direct utility losses and conflicts over resources, two effects that are more uncertain and harder to quantify.
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