NOVAFRICA Seminar: Vernon Henderson, London School of Economics — “Economics of Greenfield Urban Planning”

Como pode o planeamento urbano equilibrar eficiência, equidade e forças de mercado em cidades em rápido crescimento?

Um novo estudo baseado num grande projeto em Dar es Salaam, na Tanzânia, explora como o planeamento urbano molda os direitos de propriedade, os valores dos terrenos e o bem-estar social em cidades em desenvolvimento.

No âmbito da Série de Seminários NOVAFRICA 2025/2026, temos o prazer de receber o Professor Vernon Henderson, da London School of Economics (LSE), na sexta-feira, dia 24 de outubro, às 14h00 (hora de Lisboa), na sala D-010 da Nova School of Business and Economics, no campus de Carcavelos, para apresentar o seu artigo:

“Economics of Greenfield Urban Planning”

Abstract:

Urban planning has shaped cities for millennia, demarcating property rights and mitigating coordination failures, but its rigidities often conflict with market-driven development, which reflects preferences. Although planning is widespread in high-income countries, rapidly growing cities in the developing world are characterized by urban informality. Despite its importance, urban planning lacks an economic framework to evaluate planners’ choices. This paper offers a starting framework and applies it to a flagship project in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, which partitioned greenfield land on the urban fringe into more than 36,000 formal plots that people purchased and built homes on. To study this project, we assemble a novel dataset using administrative records, satellite imagery, and primary surveys. We develop and estimate a dynamic model in which planning design constrains the decisions of households of varying incomes to sort into formal areas. This model complements our reduced-form analysis, which uses within neighborhood variation and spatial RD to study planning choices’ effects. We find that the project secured property rights and access, raised land values relative to unplanned areas, and attracted highly educated owners. Within project areas, access to main paved roads, gridded layouts, and natural amenities are valued; plot development and public service provision have been slow; and the price elasticity of bare land with respect to plot size is -0.5. Counterfactual analysis using the model shows that while land value maximization involves the provision of larger plots, welfare maximization entails the provision of smaller plots to serve more lower-income people.

Saiba mais sobre este e outros seminários NOVAFRICA aqui.

Pode participar via Teams a partir de qualquer lugar!