Working Paper NOVAFRICA: Gangs, Lobor Mobility, and Development

Um novo estudo da Série de Documentos de Trabalho do NOVAFRICA examina o impacto das organizações criminosas no desenvolvimento económico.

Usando um desenho de descontinuidade de regressão espacial centrado nas fronteiras territoriais criadas por gangues, a pesquisa conclui que os indivíduos em bairros controlados por gangues têm rendimentos, educação e bem-estar material mais baixos em comparação com aqueles que estão fora do território dos gangues. Um fator-chave? Este estudo fornece informações valiosas sobre a forma como o crime e o controlo territorial podem prejudicar significativamente a mobilidade e o desenvolvimento económicos.

Título:

Gangs, Lobor Mobility, and Development

Nikita Melnikov

Nova SBE, and NOVAFRICA

Carlos Schmidt-Padilla

Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley

María Micaela Sviatschi

Department of Economics, Princeton University

ISSN 2183-0843
Working Paper No 2501
February 2025

Resumo:

We study how criminal organizations affect economic development. We exploit a natural experiment in El Salvador, where these criminal organizations emerged due to an exogenous shift in American immigration policy that led to the deportation of gang leaders from the
United States to El Salvador. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design that focuses on the gang-created system of borders, we find that individuals in gang-controlled neighborhoods have less material well-being, income, and education than individuals living only 50 meters away but outside of gang territory. None of these discontinuities existed before the arrival of the gangs. A key mechanism behind the results is that gangs restrict individuals’ mobility, affecting their labor-market options by preventing them from commuting to other
parts of the city. The results are not determined by high rates of selective migration, differential exposure to extortion and violence, or differences in public goods provision.

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