Tijan L Bah
World Bank, University of The Gambia, and NOVAFRICA
Catia Batista
Nova School of Business and Economics – Universidade Nova de Lisboa, CEPR, CReAM, IZA, JPAL and NOVAFRICA
ISSN 2183-0843
Working Paper No 1803
Novembro 2018
Revisto em Outubro de 2025
Resumo
Irregular migration to Europe by sea, though risky, remains one of the most popular migration options for many Sub-Saharan Africans. This study examines the drivers of irregular migration decisions using an incentivized lab-in-the field experiment in rural Gambia, the African country with the highest per-capita rate of irregular migration to Europe. We find that providing official data on the death risk increases migration by 2.4 percentage points, as migrants substantially overestimate this risk. Conversely, correcting overestimates about the chances of obtaining legal residence reduces migration by 2.1 points. Lab decisions correlate strongly with both subsequent migration intentions and realized migration. Our results highlight the importance of potential migrants’ prior beliefs in shaping responses to information and suggest that poorly designed policies may backfire.
